March 20, 2015 (Post 2)

I have now conducted my final statistical analysis where I look at the current (as of March 20, 2015 at 10am) standings and make a decision.
To do so, I will look at the stats for the teams currently and award points (3, 2 or 1) to the top 3 teams. In the end, the team that has the highest overall score will be my predicted winner. 
Please note, this method may or may not be mathematically significant however, I believe that it is notable based on stats that I have read thus far.

Categories

Number of Wins:
Montreal, St. Louis, Anaheim (45) 3 (3 way tie)
New York Rangers (44) 2Nashville Predators (43) 1

Point Percentages:
New York Rangers (0.688) 3
St. Louis (0.676) 2
Anaheim and Montreal (0.674) 1 (2 way tie)

Goals For Per Game:
Tampa Bay (3.21) 3
Dallas (3.06) 2
New York Islanders (2.99) 1

Goals Against Per Game:
Montreal (2.17) 3
Chicago (2.21) 2
New York Rangers (2.23) 1

Goals For Percentage:
Nashville (58.0) 3
New York Rangers (57.3) 2
Tampa Bay (56.5) 1  

Shots For Per Game:
Chicago (34.1) 3
New York Islanders (33.8) 2
Nashville (31.5) 1

Shots Against Per Game:
Los Angeles (26.9) 3
Minnesota  (27.2) 2
Carolina, St. Louis (27.4) 1 (2 way tie)

Shots For Percentage:
New York Islanders (54.4) 3
Tampa Bay and Los Angeles (54.2) 2
St. Louis (53) 1
 
Outshooting Win Percentage:
St. Louis (0.682) 3
Nashville (0.675) 2
Chicago (0.659) 1

Outshot Win Percentage:
  Anaheim (0.641) 3
New York Rangers (0.640) 2
Montreal (0.605) 1

Scoring First Win Percentage:
  Washington (0.842) 3
Montreal (0.829) 2
New York Rangers 1

Corsi For Percentage:
Los Angeles (55) 3
Chicago (53.8) 2
Detroit (53.7) 1

 Fenwick For Percentage:
New York Islanders and Los Angeles (54.5) 3
Tampa Bay (53.6) 2
St. Louis (53.2) 1

Save Percentage:
Montreal (93.9) 3
Nashville (93.48) 2
New Jersey (93.56) 1

  And the winner is...  

 THE MONTREAL CANADIENS
With a close race between:
- Los Angeles Kings
- St. Louis Blues 
- New York Rangers

I will update further with my EA Sports simulation.
Let's see how this season pans out!
 
  

 

March 20, 2015

Good morning, blog! I have spent the last day or two reading through Statistical Analysis documents about the NHL when deciding who will be the Stanley Cup winner. My goal is that today, I will have a "Stanley Cup Winner" chosen. 

Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference
While searching through the Hockey Analytics conference twitter feed and slideshow presentations, I found many hockey statistics websites which I searched through to gather more data for my Genius Hour. 

Hockey Analysis
 A site I came across while reading the slides from the conference was hockeyanalysis.com. I did a quick sift through this site to s
One acronym that came up frequently was CF (also seen as CF%). I also found there to be a CA. CF and CA stand for Corsi For and Corsi Against respectively. What are these? 
Corsi measures the differences in shot attempts amongst players. A team is awarded a + or - for shots on goals, missed shots and blocked shots. Naturally, shooting, scoring, saves and any percentages relating to these are important for Stanley Cup contenders (I mean, how else will you win games if you don't score and make saves?) so I figured this stat was also important to look into.
Fenwick also came up periodically which represents simply just the shots and missed shots (it does not account for blocked shots).

Sporting Charts
 Sporting Charts (www.sportingcharts.com) is another site that I found which presents real-time data for current and past seasons, teams and players and allows  you to compare and contrast different stats, teams and standings. I am looking forward to using this site for my analysis.

My Takeaway Points from Researching
From gathering information from these two sites as well as the conference site slides, I have decided to also focus on:
- Goals For percentage
- Shots For percentage
- Fenwick For percentage
- Corsi
- Corsi For percentage
- Shooting Percentag
- Save Percentage
- Goals per Game
- Shots per Game
- Home and Away Winning Percentages

References
 HockeyAnalysis.com. (2013). HockeyAnalysis.com: Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis. [Website]. Retrieved from: www.hockeyanalysis.com.

Ottawa Hockey Analysis at Carleton. (2015). Statistical Sports Consulting. [Website]. Retrieved from: www.statsportsconsulting.com/ottanalytics.

SportingCharts.com (2014). SportingCharts.com. [Website]. Retrieved from www.sportingcharts.com.